Infectious Diseases
Dr. Nuño's research on infectious diseases dates back to her early training on mathematical modeling of influenza. Some of her work includes the study of multiple influenza strains, and the role of isolation and cross-immunity. She also has evaluated the role of control measures and curtailing pandemic influenza in numerous countries.
Faced with the life-changing challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Nuño's research team united efforts to investigate critical questions around the pandemic with the goal to guide local efforts and provide knowledge that can be used to reduce the risk of COVID-19, particularly among vulnerable populations.
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, our team has supported communities by developing data visualization, statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling to support decision-making and resource allocation. With an evidence based approach our team has focused on developing solutions to reduce health disparities in racial/ethnic minorities.
Wastewater Surveillance
We considered three metrics for identifying trends in SARS-CoV2 concentration in wastewater as reported in Chan et. al., 2022; relative strength index (RSI), percent change (PC), and the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test.
Model training periods impact estimation of COVID-19 incidence from wastewater viral load
Maria L. Daza–Torres, J. Cricelio Montesinos-López, Minji Kim, Rachel Olson, Winston Bess, Lezlie Rueda, Mirjana Susa, Linnea Tucker, Yury E. Garcıa, Alec J. Schmidt, Colleen Naughton, Brad H. Pollock, Karen Shapiro, Miriam Nuno, and Heather N. Bischel
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been deployed broadly as an early warning tool for emerging COVID-19 outbreaks. WBE can inform targeted interventions and identify communities with high transmission, enabling quick and effective responses. As wastewater becomes an increasingly important indicator for COVID-19 transmission, more robust methods and metrics are needed to guide public health decision-making. The aim of this research was to develop and implement a mathematical framework to infer incident cases of COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2 levels measured in wastewater. We propose a classification scheme to assess the adequacy of model training periods based on clinical testing rates and assess the sensitivity of model predictions to training periods.
Healthy Davis Together: Creating a Model for Community Control of COVID-19
Brad H. Pollock, PhD, MPH, Charlotte L. Bergheimer, MS, Thomas S. Nesbitt, MD, MPH, Tod Stoltz, MBA, Sheri Belafsky, MD, MPH, Kenneth C. Burtis, PhD, Kelly M. Carey, Miriam Nuño, PhD
A community COVID-19 pandemic response program was launched in a college town that deployed epidemiologic infectious disease control measures and health behavior change interventions. An increase in self-reported preventive health behaviors and a lower relative case positivity proportion were observed. Scalable approaches were identified that may generalize to other college towns and other types of communities. Building public health infrastructure with such programs can be pivotal in promoting health in the post-pandemic era.
ÓRALE COVID-19!
ÓRALE COVID-19! (Organizaciones para Reducir, Avanzar y Liderar en Equidad contra el COVID-19) is an initiative of the University of California Davis that aims to support farmworkers of the central valley to access COVID-19 diagnosis tests, vaccines, and other services related to the coronavirus.
MOVE IT UP Mobilizing Organizations Via Equitable Immunizations and Testing through Unified Partnerships
This project aims to increase testing access and vaccination among Latinos and African Americans in Sacramento and Yolo County. The primary goal of MOVE IT UP is to increase the percentage of Latinx and African Americans who are vaccinated.
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on California's return to normalcy
Daza-Torres ML, García YE, Schmidt AJ, Pollock BH, Sharpnack J, Nuño M
In this work, we addressed the adequacy and deficiency of vaccine uptake within California, and the possibility and severity of a resurgence of COVID-19 as restrictions are lifted, given the current vaccination rates.
Testing and vaccination to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in nursing homes: an agent-based approach
Gómez Vázquez JP, García YE, Schmidt AJ, Martínez-López B, Nuño, M
We developed an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among resident and staff agents in a nursing home. Interactions between 172 residents and 170 staff based on data from a nursing home in Los Angeles, CA. Scenarios were simulated assuming different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, testing frequencies, and vaccine efficacy to reduce transmission.